12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby SetonHallPirate » Sat Dec 22, 2012 12:08 am

Note: Based on results of dual meets only. The basic idea is an iterative one. Begin with all wrestlers set to an even rating -- 100 in this case. Then, for each match wrestled, give each wrestler the value of their opponent's rating plus or minus a factor for winning or losing the match -- 30, plus one for each point the team won by. Total all of a wrestler's results, divide by the number of matches wrestled, and that's the end of a cycle. Then use those numbers as the start of the next cycle until you get the same results for each wrestler for two consecutive cycles.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby SetonHallPirate » Sat Dec 22, 2012 12:09 am

1 Oklahoma State 168.233
2 Ohio State 164.037
3 Missouri 162.353
4 Penn State 159.459
5 Illinois 153.923
6 Iowa 148.478
7 Virginia Tech 144.751
8 Cornell 140.387
9 Minnesota 138.592
10 Edinboro 134.959
11 Pittsburgh 133.767
12 Rutgers 131.744
13 Purdue 128.505
14 Penn 127.328
15 Nebraska 127.144
16 Kent State 127.007
17 Michigan 126.009
18 Maryland 123.028
19 Oklahoma 121.073
20 Wyoming 119.501
21 Central Michigan 119.261
22 Arizona State 117.491
23 Lehigh 115.726
24 Old Dominion 115.278
25 Bloomsburg 115.035
26 Wisconsin 113.871
27 Northwestern 113.122
28 Virginia 112.123
29 Michigan State 105.335
30 Oregon State 104.056
31 Rider 103.274
32 North Carolina 99.890
33 Army 98.662
34 Chattanooga 95.461
35 Iowa State 90.609
36 Clarion 88.626
37 Columbia 88.047
38 Stanford 87.880
39 Northern Illinois 86.977
40 Utah Valley 86.363
41 Binghamton 86.031
42 Bucknell 85.286
43 Brown 84.017
44 Indiana 84.001
45 Navy 83.855
46 West Virginia 83.743
47 CSU Bakersfield 79.617
48 The Citadel 79.569
49 Lock Haven 79.367
50 Ohio 78.479
51 Northern Colorado 78.144
52 Buffalo 77.591
53 American 77.054
54 South Dakota State 73.036
55 Northern Iowa 72.871
56 Eastern Michigan 72.535
57 North Dakota State 72.070
58 Hofstra 72.025
59 Boise State 65.555
60 Drexel 63.368
61 Princeton 62.711
62 Boston U. 62.024
63 Davidson 57.646
64 Duke 54.556
65 Cleveland State 54.151
66 Southern Illinois Edwardsville 54.003
67 Appalachian State 52.016
68 Campbell 49.690
69 Franklin & Marshall 42.016
70 Gardner-Webb 38.714
71 Cal Poly 25.993
72 George Mason 24.855
73 VMI 15.693
74 Sacred Heart -16.668
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby jammen » Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:02 am

SetonHallPirate wrote:Begin with all wrestlers set to an even rating -- 100 in this case. Then, for each match wrestled, give each wrestler the value of their opponent's rating plus or minus a factor for winning or losing the match -- 30, plus one for each point the team won by. Total all of a wrestler's results, divide by the number of matches wrestled, and that's the end of a cycle. Then use those numbers as the start of the next cycle until you get the same results for each wrestler for two consecutive cycles.




SHP, would you restate this using an example to illustrate.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby SetonHallPirate » Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:08 am

jammen wrote:
SetonHallPirate wrote:Begin with all wrestlers set to an even rating -- 100 in this case. Then, for each match wrestled, give each wrestler the value of their opponent's rating plus or minus a factor for winning or losing the match -- 30, plus one for each point the team won by. Total all of a wrestler's results, divide by the number of matches wrestled, and that's the end of a cycle. Then use those numbers as the start of the next cycle until you get the same results for each wrestler for two consecutive cycles.




SHP, would you restate this using an example to illustrate.

Sure. Navy has had one dual meet, and beat George Mason 33-4. George Mason's rating is 24.855. So add 59 to that (29 for the margin of victory, plus 30 for actually winning the dual), and you get Navy's rating of 83.855.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby AFHawk86 » Sat Dec 22, 2012 11:21 am

SetonHallPirate wrote:
jammen wrote:
SetonHallPirate wrote:Begin with all wrestlers set to an even rating -- 100 in this case. Then, for each match wrestled, give each wrestler the value of their opponent's rating plus or minus a factor for winning or losing the match -- 30, plus one for each point the team won by. Total all of a wrestler's results, divide by the number of matches wrestled, and that's the end of a cycle. Then use those numbers as the start of the next cycle until you get the same results for each wrestler for two consecutive cycles.




SHP, would you restate this using an example to illustrate.

Sure. Navy has had one dual meet, and beat George Mason 33-4. George Mason's rating is 24.855. So add 59 to that (29 for the margin of victory, plus 30 for actually winning the dual), and you get Navy's rating of 83.855.



Thanks SHP. Now, show us how GM's rating of 24.855 comes into being.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby lightweight » Sat Dec 22, 2012 12:09 pm

What does a negative score indicate? Does it mean that Sacred Heart would be better off if they just didn't get on the bus?
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby SetonHallPirate » Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:23 pm

lightweight wrote:What does a negative score indicate? Does it mean that Sacred Heart would be better off if they just didn't get on the bus?

LOL...no, it just shows that Sacred Heart is 100 points lower than average.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby SetonHallPirate » Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:31 pm

AFHawk86 wrote:
SetonHallPirate wrote:
jammen wrote:



SHP, would you restate this using an example to illustrate.

Sure. Navy has had one dual meet, and beat George Mason 33-4. George Mason's rating is 24.855. So add 59 to that (29 for the margin of victory, plus 30 for actually winning the dual), and you get Navy's rating of 83.855.



Thanks SHP. Now, show us how GM's rating of 24.855 comes into being.

Virginia: 112.123 rating minus 68 (loss 41-3) = 44.123
Gardner-Webb: 38.714 rating minus 42 (loss 24-12) = -3.286
Appalachian State: 52.016 rating minus 30 (loss 22-22, criteria point is not counted) = 22.016
Navy: 83.855 rating minus 59 (loss 33-4) = 24.855
Drexel: 63.368 rating minus 35 (loss 24-19) = 28.368
American: 77.054 rating minus 44 (loss 23-9) = 33.054
Those six dual ratings add up to 149.130, and divided by six (number of duals) equals 24.855
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby VakAttack » Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:32 pm

I think this would play better if you normalized the numbers over a 1-100 scale. I still appreciate the system, but I think it would be more attractive and understandable to people who tend to think in Base-10.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby SetonHallPirate » Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:36 pm

VakAttack wrote:I think this would play better if you normalized the numbers over a 1-100 scale. I still appreciate the system, but I think it would be more attractive and understandable to people who tend to think in Base-10.

The first column of numbers in the next post will be based on the margin of victory rating (ie. if a team wins by five, the factor is five points), and the second column is based on the win/loss-specific rating (where the factor is 30 points, regardless of whether the team wins the dual by criteria or in a 60-(-1) stomping). That's why I keep it in the form it is.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby Pinnum » Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:36 pm

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't you not use to factor in the 30 points for a win?

Also, I see not all the teams are ranked. I assume this is due to them not having duals yet and thus all of the numbers are skewed and need more duals to be blended better.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby SetonHallPirate » Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:36 pm

1 Oklahoma State 78.275 89.957
2 Ohio State 76.050 87.987
3 Missouri 73.578 88.775
4 Penn State 84.529 74.931
5 Illinois 77.335 76.588
6 Iowa 75.906 72.572
7 Virginia Tech 69.842 74.910
8 Cornell 68.684 71.702
9 Minnesota 70.708 67.884
10 Edinboro 63.261 71.697
11 Pittsburgh 63.665 70.102
12 Rutgers 61.543 70.202
13 Purdue 61.784 66.721
14 Penn 56.379 70.949
15 Nebraska 60.849 66.295
16 Kent State 58.845 68.162
17 Michigan 60.179 65.830
18 Maryland 54.077 68.951
19 Oklahoma 61.866 59.207
20 Wyoming 61.060 58.441
21 Central Michigan 58.706 60.554
22 Arizona State 59.866 57.625
23 Lehigh 56.585 59.141
24 Old Dominion 49.659 65.619
25 Bloomsburg 53.228 61.807
26 Wisconsin 50.330 63.541
27 Northwestern 57.066 56.057
28 Virginia 60.901 51.222
29 Michigan State 51.487 53.848
30 Oregon State 60.274 43.783
31 Rider 48.216 55.058
32 North Carolina 55.481 44.409
33 Army 46.501 52.161
34 Chattanooga 46.830 48.632
35 Iowa State 46.841 43.767
36 Clarion 46.651 41.975
37 Columbia 41.368 46.679
38 Stanford 40.388 47.492
39 Northern Illinois 38.640 48.337
40 Utah Valley 42.048 44.315
41 Binghamton 45.195 40.837
42 Bucknell 42.400 42.886
43 Brown 39.427 44.590
44 Indiana 40.354 43.647
45 Navy 52.550 31.305
46 West Virginia 41.803 41.941
47 CSU Bakersfield 38.037 41.580
48 The Citadel 34.732 44.836
49 Lock Haven 44.372 34.994
50 Ohio 40.620 37.860
51 Northern Colorado 41.849 36.295
52 Buffalo 42.613 34.978
53 American 41.762 35.292
54 South Dakota State 33.728 39.308
55 Northern Iowa 39.330 33.541
56 Eastern Michigan 40.719 31.817
57 North Dakota State 48.958 23.111
58 Hofstra 38.275 33.750
59 Boise State 47.250 18.305
60 Drexel 32.485 30.884
61 Princeton 32.733 29.978
62 Boston U. 34.311 27.713
63 Davidson 25.599 32.047
64 Duke 33.321 21.234
65 Cleveland State 33.192 20.959
66 Southern Illinois Edwardsville 27.805 26.198
67 Appalachian State 24.943 27.073
68 Campbell 22.868 26.822
69 Franklin & Marshall 27.427 14.590
70 Gardner-Webb 26.659 12.055
71 Cal Poly 19.761 6.232
72 George Mason 23.550 1.305
73 VMI 22.956 -7.263
74 Sacred Heart -9.987 -6.681
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby SetonHallPirate » Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:43 pm

Pinnum wrote:Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't you not use to factor in the 30 points for a win?


You're right, that 30 point factor for the win was added in for the 2010-2011 season (actually, it was a rare midseason adjustment, after Cornell dropped in the now-margin-of-victory subranking after winning National Duals).

As you mentioned, the first number in the most recent post is the margin of victory subranking, the secocnd number is the win/loss specific subranking.

Pinnum wrote:Also, I see not all the teams are ranked. I assume this is due to them not having duals yet and thus all of the numbers are skewed and need more duals to be blended better.

True in part. Air Force, Harvard, and North Carolina State have yet to wrestle any duals against Division I opponents, and therefore are not ranked. I wouldn't say all of the numbers are skewed, but some of the teams do have a somewhat small subset, and therefore their ranking is more an indication of the schedule they have wrestled than their actual performance to date.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby Pinnum » Sat Dec 22, 2012 2:38 pm

Thanks for the info. I am always a big fan of these rankings.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby LtWtLooker » Sat Dec 22, 2012 3:21 pm

What is the correction for teams that overwhelm a poor schedule early in the season and then win or lose by very tight margins when they hit the meatier part? Or a really strong team in a mediocre conference that loses or wins narrowly to the better teams and finishes by killing its weak division opponets at end of season
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby SetonHallPirate » Sat Dec 22, 2012 3:38 pm

LtWtLooker wrote:What is the correction for teams that overwhelm a poor schedule early in the season and then win or lose by very tight margins when they hit the meatier part? Or a really strong team in a mediocre conference that loses or wins narrowly to the better teams and finishes by killing its weak division opponets at end of season

I don't understand your question, but there's a win/loss component to it, and a margin of victory component, both of which have underlying strength-of-schedule components figured in. If you're pummelling soft opposition early in the season, that'll be borne out by a strong ranking on the margin of victory side, and a weaker ranking on the win/loss side. (if you're wondering why Penn State is only ranked fourth, it's because of a weak strength of schedule)
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby LtWtLooker » Sat Dec 22, 2012 5:29 pm

You beat your first 6 teams, who are in the bottom 10 on the chart by 40+ pts and then you split against the next 6 who are top 10 by a score of16-15. I do realize that scenario would never happen but am using it as an illustration.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby jammen » Sat Dec 22, 2012 5:45 pm

Maybe this will make sense later in the season, but right now I have a hard time believing that Michigan State is a better dual team than Oregon State.

Unless you're saying that Michigan State isn't a better team, just higher ranked.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby SetonHallPirate » Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:27 pm

jammen wrote:Maybe this will make sense later in the season, but right now I have a hard time believing that Michigan State is a better dual team than Oregon State.

Unless you're saying that Michigan State isn't a better team, just higher ranked.

Keep in mind that North Dakota State and Boise State are both ranked in the bottom 20, which hurts Oregon State badly, and Minnesota is a bit underranked by the formula as well.

The Margin of Victory ranking probably does a better job than the Win/Loss ranking this early in the season, and of course, Oregon State is nearly ten points better than Michigan State in the MoV ranking.
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Re: 12/21/12 Takedown Wrestling Media Dual-Results ranking

Postby SetonHallPirate » Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:32 pm

LtWtLooker wrote:You beat your first 6 teams, who are in the bottom 10 on the chart by 40+ pts and then you split against the next 6 who are top 10 by a score of16-15. I do realize that scenario would never happen but am using it as an illustration.

In the current rankings, that team would have a ranking of roughly 130 (primarily because the bottom is so skewed negatively from a normal bell curve, which I would expect to shake out over the course of the full season), which would put it between Rutgers and Purdue (12th and 13th).
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