So yesterday, Craig Sesker calls from downstairs to let me know I won the panel for the journalist predictions. Granted, it was a small pool this year, and already folks from The Open Mat and InterMat have let me know they hit more champs than I did.

All in good fun, of course, but I generally want to know how I did overall. It’s very tough making predictions, not just because of all the nuances in picking a winner, but we’re interviewing these kids. These kids read this stuff. So it’s pretty hard to walk up to someone after the tournament is said and done and congratulate them, when you know (and you’re positive they know) you didn’t pick them to win it.

One of those awkward moments when I congratulated Kyle Dake after the tournament was over. It’s never a personal thing. Sometimes you pick your favorites and sometimes you pick against your favorites for the fear of the dreaded “homerism” call.

That happened to me with Bubba Jenkins, a kid I’ve known since he was in the sixth grade. I doubted him twice this year … and he burned me bad both of those times. First in the All-Star Classic and second with my picks.

Injuries to great wrestlers like Kirk Smith and Darrion Caldwell put a damper on things, not just with picks, but with wrestling as a whole. I’m sure everyone would have loved to see Caldwell vs. Dake in the semifinals. Life isn’t always like that, unfortunately. I feel bad for those kids.

Anyway,
I figured I’d break down my overall picks, not just the finals picks that were posted on TheMat.com. I’m sure many of you did better than I did. I cringe when people call me an “expert,” although every now and then, my observational skills do get me a nugget of good perspective … if that makes any sense.

The picks were so prevalent, we created a sub-forum for the NCAA picks, because it was clogging up the discussion on TheMat.com’s college wrestling forum. I chose one poster, the always colorful Stephen Stonebraker, aka “JohnnyThompsonnum1” as a comparison. Why him? Well, he’s been known to go for the gusto and pick kids for the most random of reasons. When he hits, hey, there’s a talking point.

Overall, I managed to pick 58 of the 80 All-Americans correct, a 73.8 percent rate. I only hit 70 percent of the finalists (14-for-20) and only had six champions correct. While I did have the top four dead on in the team race, apparently that’s what propelled me in the media picks. I did pick 24 of the 80 placements exactly right, good for a modest 30 percent.

Against the fans, I’m sure I was just average.

At 125 pounds, I managed to get five of the eight All-Americans. My misses were Ben Kjar of Utah Valley, Ryan Mango of Stanford (I was still questioning the durability of the knee), and Oklahoma’s Jarrod Patterson. Most of Patterson’s pick against was looking at Mark Rappo as a possible unseeded wrestler making the quarters. It would have disrupted Patterson’s draw down low. Stonebraker did better, getting seven of the eight, only missing Missouri’s Alan Waters. As far as exactness went, I hit four of the eight exactly. Stonebreaker hit just Sanders at fifth.

At 133, I was going upset in the semis with Andrew Long. That cost me a finalist correct. I admittedly went homer in the consolations, hoping Old Dominion’s Kyle Hutter would break through. Unfortunately, he hit another one of my favorites, Penn’s Rollie Peterkin in the consolations and had Scotti Sentes looming. Neither Stonebraker or I had Sentes in the top eight, but I had him Top 12, as did Stonebraker. He went with a ballsy pick for a champion – Lou Ruggirello of Hofstra. I like Lou. I watched his career closely. Wouldn’t have bothered me one bit if he’d have won it. I only hit two exactly right here, and got another 5/8. Stonebraker hit 6/8 and only hit Hochstrasser exactly right. My misses: Sentes, Ruggirello and B.J. Futrell of Illinois. He missed on Peterkin and Iowa’s Tony Ramos.

At 141, two low seeds snuck in there, Missouri’s Todd Schavrien and Penn’s Zack Kemmerer. We both had VonOhlen and Alton placing, but they both didn’t. I also missed on Zack Bailey, which was disrupted because of his win over VonOhlen early.  Stonebraker beats me again here, hitting 6/8, while I hit just five. I had two exact (Russell and Marion), he just had Russell.

At 149, we both had Caldwell. Only pick I nailed correctly here was Molinaro, while I missed on Andrew Nadhir and Derek Valenti. So another 5/8 here for me. Stonebraker missed on Kinser, Lopouchanski and Mason. I’m sure most everyone, other than Oklahoma State fans were rooting for “Loopy” due to the news the program was getting cut at UNC Greensboro. The kid was a locked hands call away. Stonebraker hit 4/8 and hit none exactly right. He held on to a four-pick lead heading into 157.

At 157, I really sold Jenkins short. But with Bubba, he’s got that X-Factor. You sometimes never know what Bubba will show up. We got the ready to go Bubba in the finals. I hit 6/8 and only pegged one right – Steve Fittery. Stonebraker extended his lead, by hitting 7/8, but none exact. I held a lead in that category, but needed to make up some ground somewhere. He pegged Bryce Saddoris again to place, while I hit on Walter Peppelman. He also hit Jason Welch exactly right.

At 165, I had another 5/8 effort, missing on Hatchett, Gillespie and Onufer. Stonebraker was also 5/8, but he hit on Onufer, while missing on picks from Aaron Janssen and Kurt Swartz. I’d had Janssen and Dallas Bailey in my top eight. We each only hit one exactly right – me on Burroughs and him on Sponseller.

At 174, I thought I would make up some ground, hitting all eight All-Americans right, but only getting two exactly right. I hit perfectly on Letts and Bennett, while mixing up the top six. Stonebraker’s lead diminished, but only slightly, he hit on 7/8 and hit two right exactly – Reader and Covington. He missed on a Scott Glasser pick, with Mike Letts placing instead of Glasser for his 7/8. We both had Amuchastegui up pretty high. I was right on Amuchastegui making the semis, but I didn’t see him beating Lewnes. Considering I was one of the few who could actually say his name right out of high school, I should have known better, but the Lewnes family has been great to me over the years, so it was hard for me to pick against such a great kid like Mack. Reader was super deserving of the title, though. The kid has my respect and always has. I remember interviewing Reader in Fargo when he won Juniors and he was talking about then-unheralded Glasser. “He’s tough as …” well, you know.

I still trailed with three weights to go.

At 184, I finally took the lead. I again hit 8/8, although only hitting one exactly right – Rutt. I had both finalists correct, just not in the right order. Stonebraker hit 5/8, missing on picks from Josh Ihnen, Ryan Loder and Kirk Smith. I held a slight one pick lead at this point.

At 197, we tied it up again. While I hit for 6/8 and all six of those were exactly correct (picking 1-5, 7-8 dead on), Stonebraker managed 7/8, only missing on Logan Brown. He hit Zack Giesen of Stanford. I missed on him and Sonny Yohn.

At heavyweight, I hit the top four right and hit 5/8, which is kid of expected, since three unseeded wrestlers place here. Stonebraker hit on 4/8, which gave me a slim one pick win.

As I said earlier, there are numerous fans out there who did better than I did. I’d love to see how some of you ended up with total All-Americans, the percentage and how many you picked in the exact placement. That’s one place where I did have a significant edge over Stonebraker. I hit 24/80 while he hit on 8/80.